2015年中国能源策略研究(2)

Of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, the Eurasian Corridor or Land Bridge portion covers the enhancement of infrastructure including expressways, railways, pipelines and optical fiber cables. The Silk Road Economic Belt plan is a grand strategic initiative seeking to develop a new trade and transportation route linking China to Central Asia and Europe. There are various candidates for the route. Three basic candidates are given in Figure 4.

IEEJ：June 2015 ○ｃ IEEJ 2015

Figure 4 Eurasian Corridor (Eurasian Land Bridge) candidate routes

Source: Prepared form changjiangtimes.com

Chita

Petropavlovsk

Novosibirsk Sol

Aktoghay

Urumqi Arys

Tehran

New Delhi

Kunming

Khabarovsk Vladivostok

Moscow

Berlin Brest

Amsterdam

Warsaw

Ankara Bryansk

Lanzhou Zhengzhou

Lianyungang

Xian

Shenzhen

Dacca

The Chinese government believes that the “One Belt, One Road” initiative is of great

significance to the energy security strategy. Energy security is vital to industrialization and economic development. The international situation indicates that the U.S. “return to Asia” strategy has increased the risk of the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea, both key points of the energy transportation route for China, being blockaded. In preparation for such blockade, China has been apparently attempting to promote the so-called “March West” strategy for developing ground transportation routes in response to the U.S. Asian strategy.

The government consistently maintains a strategic recognition that security must have

two components. The “One Belt, One Road” strategy has domestic and overseas components. The overseas component covers the diversification of import sources, import routes and energy sources. East European countries that depend on Russia for 100% of natural gas supply are fatally vulnerable to political supply disruptions. China may be moving strategically to avoid such vulnerability.

In addition to a crude oil pipeline built between China and Kazakhstan, China completed

three pipelines -- A, B and C -- from Turkmenistan in Central Asia to China’s West-East natural gas pipeline via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in December 2009, October 2010 and May 2014, respectively. Their design annual supply capacity is 55 million cubic meters. China started the construction of the fourth or D natural gas pipeline in September 2014. When it is completed in 2020, the four pipelines’ combined annual capacity will reach 85 billion cubic meters. China also plans to construct a pipeline linking China to Iran via Pakistan and Afghanistan. If this pipeline is completed, China’s stable energy supply capacity will increase dramatically.

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From energy cooperation to regional cooperative development

Chinese oil companies’ overseas expansion has made great achievements and frequently received thanks from relevant foreign governments. At the same time, however, they have been criticized for “plundering resources,” posing “threats” and launching “new colonialism.” The Chinese government has acknowledged that it is an important challenge to associate overseas resources development with contributions to local economic development and livelihood.

Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East have rich resource deposits. They still have massive untapped resources offering great potential. But Central Asia has many inland countries with weakness seen in trade and distribution, becoming a bottleneck for economic development. Pipelines and transportation networks in China will be linked to Central Asian countries to promote trade and exchanges, detonating the Silk Road Economic Belt strategy.

China has a proverb “yao xiang fu xian xiu lu,” meaning “Wanna be rich? Build roads first!” It calls for building roads first for economic development. The Silk Road Economic Belt plan seeks to first promote infrastructure development by constructing roads, improving existing railways into high-speed ones and expanding transportation capacity substantially to vitalize trade. The Chinese government has indicated its willingness to provide financial support for such infrastructure development. It has unveiled a plan to contribute $40 billion for a Silk Road Fund to promote the Silk Road Economic Belt. In January 2015, China launched the Energy Development Fund as the first private-sector fund under the Silk Road Fund project to finance the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, soliciting $20 billion in investment from the private sector. China will also contribute 5 billion yuan (about 94.2 billion yen) to create a Maritime Silk Road Bank. It is paving the way for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (with statutory capital of $100 billion) and the New Development Bank (BRICS Development Bank) (with capital being increased from the initial $50 billion to $100 billion) as multilateral banks to be used for the “One Belt, One Road” initiative.

Since the 1990s, the Chinese government has advocated the so-called “Go Out” policy for companies’ overseas expansion. The “One Belt, One Road” development strategy offers to support investment by all companies including energy firms in Central Asian countries to secure China’s energy supply and promote local industrialization. Resource trade alone cannot secure sustainable economic development while monoculture economies dependent heavily on resource exports have a security vulnerability. Instead of monopolizing energy resources in Central Asia, China has offered to develop distribution traffic networks in Central Asian countries, share the benefits from these networks with these countries and support resource-supplying countries’ industrialization according to their requests to create a sustainable economic development cycle. President Xi has called for China’s joint development with neighboring countries. “You can take a ride on our express train (for our economic development) or just hitchhike, all are welcome.”

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Conclusion

Western sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine crisis prompted Russia to fast approach China. This has made it easier for Chinese companies to get help in Central Asia that has traditionally remained under Russian influences, providing China an opportunity to promote the “One Belt, One Road” initiative.

In Central Asian countries that feature prevalent terrorism, various racial, religious and factional disputes and a large number of nomads who have been historically less conscious of national borders, however, resources development could trigger border frictions that could develop into regional conflicts. Great uncertainties thus accompany the promotion of a strategy for developing Central Asia. The Chinese government is exploring a unique strategy learning lessons from the U.S. Middle East policy that has not necessarily been successful.

Attracting attention is whether China as a Eurasian express train could ensure its energy security and drive industrialization and economic development in neighboring countries by promoting the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. The formation of Eurasia to integrate large markets and excellent technologies in Europe, rich energy resources in the Middle East and Central Asia, and labor, production capacity and markets in East Asia is expected to greatly contribute to economic development, and peace and stability in the world.

We wish to see a 13,000-kilometer Eurasian express train being driven safely.

Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp